The Players Showed Up. The Math Didn't.
Bloomberg News put a number on it this week: investors have poured $300 million into UK padel. And the bubble may be bursting.
Full piece here (fair warning, there's a paywall): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-10-09/will-padel-s-300-million-uk-bubble-burst-in-race-to-build-courts
Here's the read.
The boom is real. The UK went from 69 courts six years ago to 1,825 across 551 venues. New companies with "padel" in the name jumped from 7 to 468 in the first half of this year alone.
But the cracks are showing. Social Sports Society, one of Britain's biggest operators with five sites, is in administration. Its financing partner called it "not a viable investment proposition." Padel XO already liquidated this year.
Meanwhile the money keeps coming. Stormzy has a stake in Padel Social Club. Andy Murray backed Game4Padel. David Lloyd is spending £111 million on 300 courts.
The diagnosis: the players showed up. The math didn't.
Simon Wood just opened four courts under railway arches in Birmingham on £700,000. He needs two to three years to break even, and he's offsetting £100,000 in annual rent with saunas, cold plunges, and DJ nights. When the courts need a DJ to pay the rent, the courts aren't the business anymore.
Game4Padel's CEO said it straight: too many operators jumping on the bandwagon far too late.
How it relates to you: what happened in Sweden, then the UK, could be coming here next. Sweden got there first. Ninety padel firms went bankrupt there in 2023.
The fix is unglamorous. Fewer courts. Right location. Honest utilization numbers. Programming that fills Tuesday at 2pm.
This week Philippe Azar posted numbers from a two-court outdoor operation in Austria: 34% occupancy with no staff, no food and beverage, no programming. Just courts and a drinks machine. No DJ required.
Underwrite it like a business, not a trend.
What you said.
The post drew a strong response from operators. Three comments are worth keeping.
James Morgenstern, who tracks UK court data through Padel Genie, put the current count at 2,869 open courts across 833 venues. Headed past 3,000 before year-end. That's well above the LTA's 1,825. Either way, the direction is the same.
Philippe added the piece most operators miss: new facilities sink everything into the build and keep nothing for year one. Everybody funds the build. Nobody funds year one. That's where the losses live.
And Neb Bursac landed the whole thing in one line: popularity creates demand, discipline creates profit.
Where I land
I run this math with operators every week. If you're looking at padel, let's talk before the concrete gets poured. No pitch.
One question for you: who's running a lean operation that's actually working? Two courts, low overhead, real occupancy. I want to hear about it.
Go find your court.
Mike
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